Thursday, October 15, 2009

Forex Basics

To be successful in the forex market it is obviously necessary to understand the basics in foreign exchange. Knoing how to analyse charts and trends is one thing but it is equally important to understand the underlying reasons why various currencies around the world are constantly moving relative to each other.

Being able to understand what influences a currency movement and correctly predict a movement in one direction or another is what makes a successful forex trader. Let us look at the major influences :

1. Current Affairs

Be aware of the current affairs around the world especially within the major world economies. like USA, United Kingdom etc Monitor national and international news channels for such events as political unrest, social disorder and in particular financial news and major announcement by world leaders and financial leaders like Bernanke etc.

2. Unpredictable Events

A major natural disaster or significant terrorist activity can influence a sudden currency movement. You should always protect your trades from unpredictable events by using stop losses to minimize the affect of a sudden adverse currency movement.

3. Predictable Events

A political event such as a general election is predictable. A major international sporting event such the Olympic Games is predictable. The important thing here is to be able to understand which currencies are likely to be affected and in which direction they will move. It's not just the events themselves which may influence a currency movement but also the announcement of such an event. So be aware of the timing of such announcements.

4. Financial Reports

Be familiar with the timing of monthly financial reporting from countries of influence like USA . Announcements by world leaders concerning GDP, interest rates, inflation etc., will often influence currency movements. Monitor the financial results for the major international companies, particularly the banks and other major international financial institutions.

5. Rumors

It's difficult to avoid rumors but you should be very careful if making a trade based on a rumor because very often a rumor is simply no more than just a rumor and often a rumor is spread to fool traders into thinking the market will move one way when in fact the opposite happens.

6. Currency Pairs

You should pay particular attention to applying foreign exchange basics in the two countries concerned with your currency pairs. It is a fact that the US dollar has the strongest influence on other currencies particularly if one of the pair is a minor currency.

The problem for any beginner in forex trading is how to apply all this fundamental analysis to successful trading. The best advice I can give is to gain experience with fundamental analysis and how each type of influence effects currency movement before you use it to make real trades.

After a while you will develop a feel which will give you more confidence as you become familiar with the foreign exchange basics.

With these in perspective, welcome to the world of forex !

Friday, October 2, 2009

Forex Trading Overview

Close to $2 trillion is exchanged each day in the forex market and it comprises the largest market in the world. With more than three quarters of deals surviving less than a week forex trading is, for the most part, a high-risk, short-term, highly volatile market. It is a highly fluid market, a good deal more so than equities, with the many traders worldwide and the very high daily turnover rate.

The top ten most active traders, however, are responsible for nearly three quarters of total dealing volume. The trading activity that happens within the interbank market, which is formed by international banks, provide the market with bid and ask prices that are far closer than retail customers can get.

In 1972, at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, forex futures contracts, that are derivatives, were introduced and now make up around seven percent of the all foreign exchange volume.

Something else that has also taken hold and is another popular hedging strategy is foreign exchange options. Investors often buy these derivatives, which are contracts to purchase currency at a certain price on a future date, to counterbalance the decline in the price of a currency and any possible losses they might endure.

An additional means by which traders are capable of mitigating risk is through an exchange, in which both parties agree to switch one currency for another for a set period of time, and will then reverse the transaction after the period runs out.

Amongst financial markets the foreign exchange market is without competition and is a fast-paced, international currency exchange. International companies, prominent banks and financial organisations will ensure its huge popularity continues and its growth is guaranteed into the future.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Technical Analysis to Predict Price Movements

In brieft, technical analysis attempts to forecast future price movements by examining past market data.

Most traders use technical analysis to get a "big picture" or macro view on an investment's price history. Even fundamental traders will glance at a chart to see if they're buying at a fair price, selling at a cyclical top or entering a choppy, sideways market.

Technical analysts make a few assumptions as below :

  • History repeats itself in regular, fairly predictable patterns. These patterns, generated by price movements, are called signals. A technical analyst's goal is to uncover a current market's signals by examining past market signals.
  • Prices move in trends. Technical analysts believe price fluctuations are not random and unpredictable. Once an up, down or sideways trend has been established, it usually will continue for a period.
  • All market fundamentals are reflected in price data. Moods, differing opinions, and other market fundamentals need not be studied.

Getting in and get out of the FX market at the right time

Traders rely on price charts, volume charts and other mathematical representations of market data to find the ideal entry and exit points for a trade. Some studies help identify a trend, while others help determine the strength and sustainability of that trend over time.

Technical analysis can add discipline and minimize emotion in your trading plan. It can be hard to screen out fundamental impressions and stick with your entry and exit points as planned.

While no system is perfect, technical analysis helps you see your trading plan through more objectively and dispassionately.

Price chart types

Bar charts
The most common type of chart. Each bar represents a period of time - a "period" as short as 1 minute or as long as several years. Over time, bar charts show distinct price patterns.

Point & Figure Charts
Point & figure patterns resemble bar chart patterns, except Xs and Os are used to mark changes in price direction. Point & figure charts make no use of time scale to associate a certain day with a certain price action.

Candlestick Charts
Instead of a simple bar, each candlestick shows the high, low, opening and closing price for that period of time it represents. Candlestick patterns provide greater visual detail as they develop.


Technical Indicator Types

Trend
Trend indicators (moving averages, trend lines) smooth price data out, so that a persistent up, down or sideways trend can be easily seen.

Volatility
"Volatility" (Bollinger Bands eg)refers to the magnitude of day-to-day price fluctuations, whatever their directional trend. Changes in volatility tend to anticipate changes in prices.

Strength
Strength indicators describe the intensity of market opinion on a certain price by examining the market positions taken by various market participants. Volume or open interest are the basic ingredients of strength indicators.

Cycle
Cycle indicators indicate repeating market patterns from recurrent events such as seasons or elections. Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market pattern. (Example: Elliott Wave)

Momentum
Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest when a trend starts and lowest when the trend changes.

When price and momentum diverge, it suggests weakness. If price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. (Example: Stochastic, MACD, RSI)

Support/Resistance
Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon is attributed to basic supply and demand. (Example: Trend Lines)

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

How Long Have You Been Trading in Forex ?

Well, it is not simply a matter of how long you have been in forex trading.

The important thing still lies in your understanding of the forex market, how the currency pairs move relative to one another. It is not a matter of a "gut feeling" to short sell or buy without a purpose.

Also, how you can make use of fundamental news and technical analysis to aid you in your decision making process. Fundamental news like bank rates, GDP, employment figures etc will have impact on the current movement as in technical charting which will help you determine long term trends.

Going blindly into the forex buy/sell without basic understanding of the highly volatile currency market can prove disastrous for many newbie trader as you can easily lose tons of money within minutes as much as you can earn that much if you understand how it works.