Sunday, September 20, 2009

Technical Analysis to Predict Price Movements

In brieft, technical analysis attempts to forecast future price movements by examining past market data.

Most traders use technical analysis to get a "big picture" or macro view on an investment's price history. Even fundamental traders will glance at a chart to see if they're buying at a fair price, selling at a cyclical top or entering a choppy, sideways market.

Technical analysts make a few assumptions as below :

  • History repeats itself in regular, fairly predictable patterns. These patterns, generated by price movements, are called signals. A technical analyst's goal is to uncover a current market's signals by examining past market signals.
  • Prices move in trends. Technical analysts believe price fluctuations are not random and unpredictable. Once an up, down or sideways trend has been established, it usually will continue for a period.
  • All market fundamentals are reflected in price data. Moods, differing opinions, and other market fundamentals need not be studied.

Getting in and get out of the FX market at the right time

Traders rely on price charts, volume charts and other mathematical representations of market data to find the ideal entry and exit points for a trade. Some studies help identify a trend, while others help determine the strength and sustainability of that trend over time.

Technical analysis can add discipline and minimize emotion in your trading plan. It can be hard to screen out fundamental impressions and stick with your entry and exit points as planned.

While no system is perfect, technical analysis helps you see your trading plan through more objectively and dispassionately.

Price chart types

Bar charts
The most common type of chart. Each bar represents a period of time - a "period" as short as 1 minute or as long as several years. Over time, bar charts show distinct price patterns.

Point & Figure Charts
Point & figure patterns resemble bar chart patterns, except Xs and Os are used to mark changes in price direction. Point & figure charts make no use of time scale to associate a certain day with a certain price action.

Candlestick Charts
Instead of a simple bar, each candlestick shows the high, low, opening and closing price for that period of time it represents. Candlestick patterns provide greater visual detail as they develop.


Technical Indicator Types

Trend
Trend indicators (moving averages, trend lines) smooth price data out, so that a persistent up, down or sideways trend can be easily seen.

Volatility
"Volatility" (Bollinger Bands eg)refers to the magnitude of day-to-day price fluctuations, whatever their directional trend. Changes in volatility tend to anticipate changes in prices.

Strength
Strength indicators describe the intensity of market opinion on a certain price by examining the market positions taken by various market participants. Volume or open interest are the basic ingredients of strength indicators.

Cycle
Cycle indicators indicate repeating market patterns from recurrent events such as seasons or elections. Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market pattern. (Example: Elliott Wave)

Momentum
Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest when a trend starts and lowest when the trend changes.

When price and momentum diverge, it suggests weakness. If price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. (Example: Stochastic, MACD, RSI)

Support/Resistance
Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon is attributed to basic supply and demand. (Example: Trend Lines)

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

How Long Have You Been Trading in Forex ?

Well, it is not simply a matter of how long you have been in forex trading.

The important thing still lies in your understanding of the forex market, how the currency pairs move relative to one another. It is not a matter of a "gut feeling" to short sell or buy without a purpose.

Also, how you can make use of fundamental news and technical analysis to aid you in your decision making process. Fundamental news like bank rates, GDP, employment figures etc will have impact on the current movement as in technical charting which will help you determine long term trends.

Going blindly into the forex buy/sell without basic understanding of the highly volatile currency market can prove disastrous for many newbie trader as you can easily lose tons of money within minutes as much as you can earn that much if you understand how it works.