Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Forex Trading Recommendations

Traders who want to start FOREX trading should learn to begin with small accounts ($25,000 and under) or with a mini account and always trade with the trend. Many beginners look for trades that flow in any direction, which can be somewhat unreliable.

While FOREX trading easily permits bi-directional trades, you will realize once you start trading FOREX that trading in the direction of the trend will improve your odds over the long run.

Another way to improve your odds is to have at least two accounts, including at least one real account and one demo account. You don’t stop learning when you start trading real dollars. Use your demo account to test any alternative trades you might be considering.

If you have the right amount of money when you start FOREX trading, try trading two lots rather than one. Or even three lots. This is safer than only trading one. When everything is riding on one trade, it’s hard to make good decisions. Having a few positions going is a good way to take the intensity out of a trade. Conversely, you may also want to consider extreme trading, which can be the most conservative trading, when you think about it. Trading at the extremes ­increases the odds that you have chosen the right direction.

Take the time to examine the charts. These exist to help you time your trades. When you are trading at 30- and 15-minute time increments, it can take a great deal of dexterity, and it’s good to have this knowledge at your fingertips.

But don't trade the time frame that is offered. Trade the pattern instead. Reversal patterns, hesitation patterns and breakout patterns show up a lot. Learn to look for these patterns in any time frame. While the patterns are always there if you look for them, leading indicators aren’t there. Don’t spend all your time looking for them there simply aren’t any.

Some firms make a lot of money selling software that predicts the future, but the reality is that if those products really worked, they wouldn't be telling you about it. When you start FOREX trading use the simple Upside Down Rule. If you can turn a chart upside down and it still looks the same, avoid it all together.

You should fully check the Big Five: the dollar/yen, euro/dollar, Swiss franc/dollar, euro/yen and pound/dollar ­ before you decide to take a position in any one of them. There might be something obvious that you’ve missed.

And finally when you first start FOREX trading, don't keep count of your profits in your first 20 trades. Keep track of the percentage of wins instead. Once you know you can pick directions, your profits can be increased with multi-plot trading and by using variations in your stops.

Never assume you know a lot when you begin to make money from forex. The market is highly volatile and forever changing with surprises from fundamental events. Be on your toes with the most up to date financial and economic news affecting the major currencies if you ever want to win in the currency market. Try not to be caught with your pants down !

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

How to Calculate Profit and Loss in a FX Trade

To be in this market, it is certainly useful for you to understand how to calculate the profit/loss of a trading position, even though trading platforms have this done automatically.

Take the following example :

Let's say that the current bid/ask for EUR/USD is 1.4616/19, meaning you can buy 1 euro for 1.4619 or sell 1 euro for 1.4616.

Suppose you decide that the Euro is undervalued against the US dollar. To execute this strategy, you would buy Euros (simultaneously selling dollars), and then wait for the exchange rate to rise.

So you make the trade: to buy 100,000 Euros you pay 146,190 dollars (100,000 x 1.4619). Remember, at 1% margin, your initial margin deposit would be approximately $1,461 for this trade.

As you expected, Euro strengthens to 1.4623/26. Now, to realize your profits, you sell 100,000 Euros at the current rate of 1.4623, and receive $146,230

You bought 100k Euros at 1.4619, paying $146,190. Then you sold 100k Euros at 1.4623, receiving $146,230. That's a difference of 4 pips, or in dollar terms ($146,190 - 146,230 = $40).

Total profit = US $40.

I hope this simple illustration will help you better understand how a FX trade is calculated !

Friday, January 15, 2010

Trading in Currency

Daily turnover in the world's currencies comes from two sources:

  • Foreign trade (5%). Companies buy and sell products in foreign countries, plus convert profits from foreign sales into domestic currency.
  • Speculation for profit (95%).
Most traders focus on the biggest, most liquid currency pairs. "The Majors" include US Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Euro, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

In fact, more than 85% of daily forex trading happens in the major currency pairs.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Moving Averages

Types of Moving Averages

One of the most widely used indicators - moving averages, help traders verify existing trends, identify emerging trends, and view overextended trends about to reverse. As the name suggests, these are lines overlaid on a chart that "average out" short-term price fluctuations, so you can see the long-term price trend.

A simple moving average weighs each price point over the specified period equally. The trader defines whether the high, low, or close is used, and these price points are added together and averaged, forming a line.

An exponential moving average weighs more recent price data in a different way. An exponential moving average multiplies a percentage of the most recent price by the previous period's average price.

A weighted moving average gives more emphasis to the latest data. It smoothes out a price curve, while making the average more responsive to recent price changes.

It can take a while to find the best combination of moving average and period length for your currency pair. The right combo will make the trend you're looking for clearly visible, as it develops. Finding that optimal fit is called curve fitting.

Usually traders start by comparing a few time frames for their moving averages over a historical chart. Then you can compare how well and how early each timeframe signaled changes in the price data as they developed, then adjust accordingly.

When you've found a moving average that works well for your currency pair, you can consider this as a line of support for long positions or resistance for short positions. If prices cross this line, that often signals a currency is reversing course.

Here's an example of how it works :

Longer-term moving averages define a trend, but shorter-term MAs may signal its shift faster. That's why many traders watch moving averages with different timeframes at once. If a short-term MA crosses your longer-term MA, it can signal your trend is ending - and time to pare back your position.

I hope this helps ! See below video for more info.