Monday, January 11, 2010

Moving Averages

Types of Moving Averages

One of the most widely used indicators - moving averages, help traders verify existing trends, identify emerging trends, and view overextended trends about to reverse. As the name suggests, these are lines overlaid on a chart that "average out" short-term price fluctuations, so you can see the long-term price trend.

A simple moving average weighs each price point over the specified period equally. The trader defines whether the high, low, or close is used, and these price points are added together and averaged, forming a line.

An exponential moving average weighs more recent price data in a different way. An exponential moving average multiplies a percentage of the most recent price by the previous period's average price.

A weighted moving average gives more emphasis to the latest data. It smoothes out a price curve, while making the average more responsive to recent price changes.

It can take a while to find the best combination of moving average and period length for your currency pair. The right combo will make the trend you're looking for clearly visible, as it develops. Finding that optimal fit is called curve fitting.

Usually traders start by comparing a few time frames for their moving averages over a historical chart. Then you can compare how well and how early each timeframe signaled changes in the price data as they developed, then adjust accordingly.

When you've found a moving average that works well for your currency pair, you can consider this as a line of support for long positions or resistance for short positions. If prices cross this line, that often signals a currency is reversing course.

Here's an example of how it works :

Longer-term moving averages define a trend, but shorter-term MAs may signal its shift faster. That's why many traders watch moving averages with different timeframes at once. If a short-term MA crosses your longer-term MA, it can signal your trend is ending - and time to pare back your position.

I hope this helps ! See below video for more info.